Here’s what Washington state might have looked like in 2016 without congressional gerrymanderingPosted: 2016-12-30
Washington uses a bipartisan redistricting commission instead of leaving it up to the legislature to draw the lines. While that might sound like a great way to prevent partisan gerrymandering, it often simply devolves into a gerrymander aimed at protecting incumbents from both parties, depriving voters of the chance to vote in truly competitive races. Since Team Red had just made major gains in the 2010 elections right before redistricting took place, protecting incumbents effectively helped Republicans compared to what a nonpartisan map might have done.
Indeed, this process was exactly what happened in Washington, where one of the two Democratic commission members defected to side with the two Republicans to pass the GOP’s preferred maps in exchange for giving a few Democratic incumbents their own choice of turf. In particular, Washington’s congressional map gerrymandered the Seattle metro area to protect 8th District Republican Rep. Dave Reichert, who had faced close calls in 2006 and 2010. As seen below, the redrawn district shed some key heavily Democratic suburban areas east of Seattle while it contained rural Republican-leaning turf further south, causing Hillary Clinton to win it by just 48-45.
Our 8th District shed rural Pierce County and regained those highly educated suburbs due east of Seattle (see here for a larger version). Those changes would have caused it to back Clinton by a landslide 60-34 spread. Although Reichert won the existing district by 20 points, the redrawn district itself was 23 points more Democratic by presidential margin. On top of that, it’s quite probable that Reichert would have drawn a top-tier challenger in our nonpartisan version instead of the underfunded Democrat he actually faced, likely dooming him.
All six other Democratic districts would have remained secure for Team Blue, meaning that without Washington’s pro-Republican incumbent protection gerrymander, Democrats would have likely gained another seat in 2016.